Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama are desperately trying to claim the mantle of leadership regarding evangelical Christians and blacks. However, are the leaders of these coalitions convinced that they are the right candidates?
One of the surprising elements regarding the presidential primary season is the ambivalence and suspicion that some black leaders and religious groups have toward Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, respectively.
Richard Land works for the Southern Baptist Convention as the head of its Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission. It's supposed to formulate public policy for the organization and convey its message to the media. He doesn't have much influence among the convention's 16 million members. If he speaks, it doesn't mean that its members will do what he says or wants. Mike Huckabee was once head of the SBC's Arkansas chapter.
Tony Perkins is head of the Family Research Council. Like Land, he is asked by many members of the media to speak out for the nation's Chrstian conservatives.
Land and Perkins haven't endorsed Mike Huckabee's candidacy. He fits their version of a religious zealot but he has one flaw: he hasn't demonstrated a complete devotion to supply-side economics.
This is an example of the relationship that the religious right has with the Republican Party going back to Ronald Reagan:
''we will come to your side, bring with us our multitudes, proclaim that you are the true and only vessel of God's will in politics. In exchange you will grant us access, influence, your unbending line on abortion and the threat of gays obtaining civil rights. And we will adopt your economic dreams as our own, clothe them in holy vestments, testify to the godliness of tax cuts for the rich.''
According to the leaders of the religious right, Mike Huckabee has been talking like a populist during his campaign. He openly questions the notion that greed is good. This verbiage definitely puts Christian conservatives at odds with the fiscally conservative, pro-growth Republican supply-siders.
If Huckabee doesn't win the Republican nomination, he could be one of the most sought-after spokesmen for conservative Christians. Perkins and Land might not be in such high demand for speaking engagements anymore.
Barack Obama's ascendancy is a threat to black leaders too. Many of them are older now and want to remain relevant. Obama speaks in a less confrontational tone than previous black leaders from the civil rights community. He doesn't owe his success to them. Obama has reached out to whites for support and wants to unify the country. This is a completely different approach from the 1960's black leaders.
The Democratic Party needs the majority of African-American votes to successfully compete with the Republicans in November. Usually, Democrats get about 90 percent of blacks to vote for them in the general election. Statistically, it's about 20 percent of the total Democratic vote.
However, the evangelical base is even more important to the Republicans.
''Evangelicals made up over a third of George Bush's votes in 2004, with the most religious among them (those attending church at least once a week) comprising nearly a quarter of his votes.''
Will Christian conservatives turn out if the Republican nominee is Giuliani or McCain? If the Democratic nominee is Obama, will just enough of these people turn to him and prove to be the deciding factor for a victory in November 2008?
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