Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary last evening. This appeared to be a surprise to most media outlets, as well as the Clinton campaign itself, who's internal polls showed her down 11pts to Obama going into the primary.
After Barack Obama’s dramatic win last Thursday in the Iowa Caucus, Clinton’s 2pt win gives the Clinton camp some new life. Amid rumors of a possible shake-up in the campaign staff were she to lose in New Hampshire, all appears well and good for the Clinton camp for now heading into the Michigan primary January 15th. The Clinton strategy for New Hampshire was desperate and deceiving. And it was a stroke of genius.
On the heels of Obama’s win, in Iowa the media began to portray him as the clear front runner. Clinton insiders must have loved this. They embraced that message and used it to begin a spin campaign. They first rallied the base, telling supporters they needed a heavy turnout and sending e- mails to previous donors, and new ones to boot, for more contributions. Then came the subtle jabs about Obama’s experience, a campaign talking point. But the real turning point came after John Edwards’ attack on Clinton during Saturday’s debate. She stood up for herself forcefully, and that gave her a real opening.
Keep in mind that the Clintons are shrewd political tacticians, so called masters in the art of politics. In a state where the electorate for the primary was 57 per cent women, the attack could not have been seen as favorable. Women felt obvious sympathy for Hillary being –remember this one– beaten up on. The women I talked to who saw the debate or the exchange, did not like it and felt it would hurt Obama. Call it guilt by association with Edwards. We soon heard about back room agreements with Bill Richardson in Iowa and heard suggestions that Edwards could be bucking for Vice-President. But the ace in the hole was going to be the reaction of women.
The decision of the Clinton campaign to break from the stump speeches to a Q & A format following the debate was brilliant. It gave her a chance to field some softball questions from sympathetic women. The million dollar “how are you doing” question was actually posed by an acquaintance of Marianne Pernold-Young. She is a freelance photographer who in the past has hosted events for both Clintons. Her teary response made women feel her pain. At the end of her welling up she managed to get in a shot at Obama’s record, and the dire need to see someone who will be ready from day one.
Her campaign then sent out the former President Bill Clinton. His speech on Obama’s views prior to joining the Senate and his voting record in comparison to Hillary’s was astonishing. His criticizing of the New Hampshire election officials for moving up there primary was key also. The heat was really turned on now. I suspect Mrs. Clinton received even more support from women who thought Bill was just making it worst for her campaign. You could almost hear “that womanizing son of a b---- should just keep quiet and let her run.”
Most importantly however, was the decision of the Clinton camp to embrace the polls showing her as the underdog was used to rally women voters. Women were troubled to see that the first “real” serious woman candidates run would be coming to an end. The most qualified woman ever in this position is going to lose to the popular guy. The question most inferred was: “Do you think any woman with a record like his(Obama) could become a front runner?” This also rallied the woman vote. The press beat up on her through several articles and some mean front-page headlines, particularly The New York Post. Women I spoke with found that mean spirited and were turned off by it. This was certainly good for a few points.
I mentioned the 57 per cent women who could vote in the primary. Hillary Clinton won 46 per cent of the woman’s vote, good enough for a 12-point margin in that category. She lost among women in Iowa. Michigan is next, and that State has a woman Governor by the way.
