Lebanon's Looming Crisis

The Lebanese parliament has deferred until October 23 its vote to to elect a new president to succeed outgoing president Emile Lahoud. In the next weeks, frantic negotiations are continuing between the various parties, to ensure that a two thirds majority

If the negotiations succeed, a deadlock will be broken that has held Lebanese politics in its grip since last December. Lebanese internal politics mirror the struggle between Israel and Syria and the pro-Sunni Arab nations' jostle for regional influence outrivalling Shi'ite Iran. And the puzzle pieces together too in the greater context of the American struggle with Iran. But there are signs that the Lebanese are getting fed up with this outside interference. Lebanon's parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who’s busy negotiating with all parties, lashed out at the UN Security Council last week. He accused the council of ‘interference’ in Lebanon’s internal affairs. Just as the council called for “a free Lebanese presidential election on October 23”. Berri issued a statement, saying "It is not within the competence of the United Nations Security Council -- with all the respect which is due to it -- to interfere in Lebanese affairs." Lebanon is an almost proverbially case of a country on the verge of some catastrophe or other. Perhaps what it needs most is the free space to find a compromise solution to its Presidential succession problem. Analysts say that Lebanon’s political crisis could turn violent if the succession problem is not solved. They are right. To have an indication of the magnitude of the the precariousness of Lebanon’s internal affairs; the killing two weeks ago of Antoine Ghanem, a member of the Christian Phalange party, wasn’t just a political blow, it also literally impacted on day to day politics. The deduction by one of the anti Syrian Parliamentary majority that rules the country, means this grouping of Sunnis, Christians and Druze factions were even less secure of reaching the legally required two thirds quorum for the Presidential vote. Parliament Speaker and pro Syrian opposition member Nabih Berri’s shuttling between the opposition and the incumbent government has yet to lead to direct results. The parties that will have to be involved in the compromise solution include the Shi'ites (Hezbollah) and Christians who are in the opposition. They have been keeping the country in a paralysis since the end of last year by effectively rendering governing impossible, holding demonstrations. Berri has also been negotiating with Sa'ad Hariri, and Nasrallah Butros Sfeir. Sa'ad Hariri is the Saudi Arabia-backed Sunni Future Movement leader and he also leads the pro-government coalition. Nasrallah Butros Sfeir is the patriarch of the Maronite Christians. If a President is not elected on time his powers are automatically transferred to the government. Some of the pro Syrian political leaders currently in power will then attempt to impose their candidate, which is not without its risks. “The fragile Lebanese political system stands in danger of total breakdown, according to ISI.” They add, that come what may, “Syria will maintain significant influence over Lebanese political life regardless of the presidential vote result.” The international jostle for influence in tiny Lebanon’s internal affairs on a more immediate level is mostly the prerogative of not only Syria, but also of Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between Damascus and Riyad became most visible when the Saudis temporarily recalled their ambassador in Beirut because his life was feared for. Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice in The Hague has started proceedings for the trial of the suspected murderers of President Rafiq Hariri, who was assassinated in February 2005. Hizbollah, Amal and allied pro-Syrian ministers have in the past been strongly opposed to this. They quit their posts last year having narrowly missed a convincing one-third majority that they would have used to block the international tribunal to try those held responsible for the al-Hariri murder. The special tribunal in the Hague that was approved a few months ago by the UN has strong support of the US government. The preliminary investigation into the Hariri murder has found evidence of Syrian and Lebanese intelligence involvement in the assassination as well as clues as to what led to the murders of the recently killed anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians, ISI writes. The case is being transferred to legal experts in the international court of Justice in The Hague.