Asteroid-impact Software Shows Where It Hurts

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Treehugger reports that it is called NEOimpactor.

The software has been specifically designed to model asteroid impacts, allowing scientists to gauge the impact of "small" asteroids - "small" as in under one kilometre in diameter. Their results so far show that 10 countries are at the greatest risk. China, Indonesia, India, Japan, the United States, the Philippines, Italy, the United Kingdom, Brazil and Nigeria.

“The threat of the Earth being hit by an asteroid is increasingly being accepted as the single greatest natural disaster hazard faced by humanity,” said Nick Bailey, one of the researchers developing the software.

“The consequences for human populations and infrastructure as a result of an impact are enormous,” continues Bailey. “Nearly one hundred years ago a remote region near the Tunguska River witnessed the largest asteroid impact event in living memory when a relatively small object (approximately 50 metres in diameter) exploded in mid-air.”

Wikipedia data suggests that asteroids with a 1 kilometer diameter have hit the Earth a few times in each million year interval. Large collisions do happen and 5 kilometer asteroids happen about once every ten million years or so. In 1908, the Tunguska explosion, which they equate to 20 megatons of TNT, was caused by an 20 m object. Small collisions, equivalent to a thousand tons of TNT, occur a few times every month.

The International Spaceguard survey has been cataloguing all near earth asteroids since 1998, larger then one kilometre, but they say that it is the smaller, undetected asteroids under one kilometre in diameter which pose an equally-great risk.

Their goal is to study the threat and who is most affected. Then precautions can be taken and safeguards put in place.