John Naisbitt: MindSet - Graveyards of Information

The following is a continuation of an earlier article titled 'The future is embedded in the present' Mindset # 10 - Don’t add unless you subtract This is the mindset that will take the most effort for me to implement. I add and add and add. I monitor about 25 blogs; I’m subscribed to about 15 podcasts and in between I read books and write. I enjoy it all, and maybe if I didn’t have a day job (and a wife and three kids) I could really keep up, but it would probably be more effective to carve out a sustainable body of information to monitor.

“Our goal should not be to create cemeteries of information, but cradles of knowledge and inspiration.”

That gives me a large surge of guilt. My Bloglines and Google Reader accounts are gigantic cemeteries of information. If you use one of these readers you know what I mean. Naisbitt is quite disciplined when it comes to the size of his library. He caps it at 4000 books and doesn’t add a book to it without choosing one to give away. This is a way of raising the quality and relevance of his library. I can’t even think of imposing this one on myself. Call it undisciplined, but I love every one of my 1500 or so books. Maybe I’ll implement this discipline when I hit 4000. Lao Tzu said: “To attain knowledge, add things every day. To attain wisdom, remove things every day.” Mindset # 11 - Don’t forget the ecology of technology With the advent of new technology, questions need to be asked: What will be enhanced? What will be diminished? What will be replaced? Pictures of The Future After elaborating on the 11 mindsets, Naisbitt sets out to introduce five pictures of the future he has framed. “They are the result of putting single pieces together until the puzzle picture is completed,” he says. Picture # 1 - CULTURE: A visual culture is taking over the world As almost everyone has access to the same technology, what will make your company sand out? Ben Evans: “Design and creativity are one of the key competitive advantages companies in developed economies can have. In the future it will probably be the only one they have left.” Robert Hayes (professor emeritus at Harvard Business School): “Fifteen years ago companies competed on price. Now it’s quality. Tomorrow it’s design.” I see plenty of evidence for this in a number of industries. I think his theory can be applied other than simply as a blanket statement about industrial society in general. It can be applied in a linear way to various industries as they age and mature. In my own industry (vinyl windows) I believe we are somewhere in the middle. We will always compete on price of course, but in recent years, as production technology has become more prevalent, the focus has shifted toward who has the best quality. If Hayes theory holds true, in the future, when the difference in quality between competitors becomes smaller, we will be competing on design. This appears true in the automotive industry as well. Of course it does seem that although North American vehicles are now very close to the same quality as their foreign counterparts, we lagged behind for so long that now the assumption of poor quality is what must be overcome more than the reality of poor quality itself. The auto industry is certainly in the design competitive phase of Haye’s theory and again this is an area where we lag behind and are playing catch-up. The most obvious example of this to me is the Ford Fusion, which I have mistaken more than once for the perennially successful Honda Accord. But this only copying and is therefore more problem solving than opportunity exploitation. Another key to success is creating a product design that does not need to be adapted . He points to Apple’s iPod as an example of this and really, Steve Jobs and Apple could be sited many times over in this book as examples of Naisbitt’s theories in action. Picture # 2 - ECONOMICS: From nation-states to economic domains “Many companies are reconstituting themselves as networks of entrepreneurs.” Bill Weldon (chairman and CEO of Johnson & Johnson): “We don’t think of a $40 billion plus corporation. We think of 200 smaller businesses and each one of them is focused on the market they compete in.” Decentralization leads to greater efficiency. Look to the government for many examples of the opposite. Regarding globalization and Americanization Naisbitt says: Two prejudices stay: Asia is taking away jobs, and America is undermining national culture.” His answer to these claims is that “Embedded in the present is the unrecognized paradox that culturally, America itself is changing more dramatically than America is changing the wold.” And this is mostly due to immigration. Interesting fact: in America, there are more Chinese restaurants than there are McDonald’s. Picture # 3 - CHINA: The periphery is the center This chapter was of particular interest to me having been to China in the spring of last year (2006). There is simply too much here for me to summarize. There were many times I nodded in agreement. I’ll leave it at that. Picture # 4 - EUROPE: Mutually assured decline This chapter is a lesson in the various governance ideologies of Europe. Naisbitt says the problem with the EU is they break Mindset # 9 - You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities – and that European politics is filled with problem solvers. “Too many bureaucratic rules leave too little room for opportunity seekers to bring about real change,” he says, “Without active and rewarded entrepreneurship, an economy is destined for stagnation.” Picture # 5 - OUR REVOLUTIONARY ERA: Reservoir of innovation “We are the beneficiaries of the revolutionary breakthroughs of the last years of the twentieth century. The next half of this century will be an era of absorbing. Extending, and perfecting those breakthroughs. Hype for the Next Big Thing fills space in the media, but it does not inspire a single idea, certainly not a Next Big Thing, which won’t come any time soon. And those who keep waiting for it will be missing out on the great opportunities right in front of their noses.” Summary This was an worthwhile read, and one that warrants a revisit in the coming years. Article author's Blog can be found at michaelkrahn.com/blog