Murdoch Dow Jones takeover- scuttlebutt abounds, substance is lacking.

The white knights have hightailed it, and Godzilla has an appointment to talk to the management. Information is no better than usual, and the lockdown on news about real progress is still obviously in force.

The share valuation is blamed for scaring off other suitors, including General Electric. The original tactic of the high offer is now beginning to percolate through to the geniuses doing the analysis. In terms of valuation, the offer is generous in the extreme. They’ve underestimated Murdoch very badly. The very first move was to scare competition out of the way, and even if it’s taken a while for someone to get out the calculators, that’s what it’s done. For News Corp, the bid is value adding on a macro corporate scale, and they’re obviously not about to become a registered charity on the basis of this offer. Dow Jones fits in well to their new business media idea, and they’re expecting to come out in front. Not an unreasonable theory; after all, this is the world’s primary financial and market source. You’d need a degree to be the janitor at the Wall Street Journal, so they could be sure you weren’t about to throw out anything important in the trash. For anyone else, that price is steep. Particularly for non-media players, where it doesn’t even begin to qualify as core business or synergistic corporate positioning. The stock was a turkey prior to the offer, and the ownership considered locked in. Those used to the nutcase thinking of the market might have forgotten the machinery of stock valuation, so a brief explanation: net value of units after assets and liabilities, with cash flow and any upsides or downsides as major considerations. On that basis Dow Jones is worth roughly what the market said it was, pre-offer. Now, have a look at this article and see how much actual information you can find. The history of Murdoch’s big moves is also a history of miscalls by just about everyone. Sydney Morning Herald is one of Murdoch’s Australian competitors, and their quality is normally very high. But when it’s him they’re talking about, they seem to miss points regularly. The irony is that many of his competitors have done to him what they’re accusing him of doing, spinning news their way.