Its the hottest piece of technology out there, and its not even out there yet. Yet despite this, John Dvorak believes that it's doomed to fail.
In
this article, Dvorak claims that Apple doesn't stand a chance because the mobile phone business is already so crowded. And not only is it crowded, but it is very trendy, with users quickly adopting the latest technology, rendering models obsolete only months after they come out. He states that "its (Apple's) phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months" and because of this, he is unsure if they can keep up with the market. Not only this, but they also risk tarnishing their image as a "hot company".
Now how many versions of the iPod have come out? I think that it is safe to say that Apple will have no problem releasing new models to keep up with consumer demand. In fact, many people (myself included) complain that that they currently release new products
too often. It seems as though once you buy an iPod or a new Mac a newer, better model comes out.
But Dvorak is also forgetting one keep aspect that will make the iPhone a success: the iPod branding. The iPod is so insanley popular that a phone linked to it will undoubtedly be successful as well.
One also has to question whether or not Dvorak has actually seen the iPhone, because it seems as though everyone who has (myself included once again) has only one thought: I need one now! It's hard to see how creating what is already, before it's even been released, the hottest mobile phone on the market could possibly hurt Apple's image.